All projections indicate that Chilean salmon will continue to shine in 2023 and 2024, with high prices, in a market where supply will continue to be low and demand very high. During 2022, in fact, production companies recorded significant profits despite the crisis, and in general, maintained healthy finances, showing foolproof resilience.
For DNB Bank analyst Dag Sletmo, prices remain strong. The main reason is the shortage of supply. Growth in 2023 will be 1% according to Kontali and 5% in 2024. The general rule of thumb is that underlying demand grows 5% or more per year, so that should bode well for prices. High inflation and uncertain times are a concern regarding demand, but so far, salmon looks solid in this context.
"Supply will probably not grow this year, it will be close to zero. The best guess for demand would be 5% globally. And that would also apply to Chilean salmon. Some customers have preferences for salmon from specific countries, but many do not, which means that the industry faces essentially the same growth in demand regardless of nationality", explained the DNB Bank expert.
While Rabobank analyst Gorjan Nikolik made it clear that 2022 was a great year for Chilean salmon farming. And so far in 2023 there are similar conditions, with prices that have remained high and costs under control. "In the absence of any negative climatic or biological events, 2023 looks like it will be another excellent year. Despite headwinds, demand remains strong".